The Math: Impossible for HC Or BO to Win Nom Process
by Public Servant
Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 02:30:20 PM PST
Paul Kane at the Washington Post has crunched the numbers and finds that it is mathematically impossible for Clinton or Obama to win the Dem nomination in the standard process. That puts the super-delegates, the Dem Party elite, front and center to choose for us.
There are 3,253 pledged delegates. These are assigned based on votes in primaries (and caucuses). To win the Dem nomination, a total of 2,025 delegates is necessary. So far, nearly 55% of the total of 3,253 delegates have been pledged via primary/caucus voting. Hillary and Barack are fairly close to even so far, ~900 delegates each, leaving ~1450 delegates up for grabs in the next few months
The problem is that if they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, that totals ~1800, leaving ~1450 delegates available. If 2025 are needed to win, its highly unlikely that Obama or Clinton would win the 1100+ of the remaining 1450 delegates (45%) necessary to win through actual voting.
So unless Obama can win this politically in February and somehow knock Clinton out on Super Tuesday II on March 4th in Ohio and Texas, or unless some huge scandal pops up which is also unlikely, this thing is going to end with a few hundred Super-Ds making the call. That is, unless Clinton manages to push the Dems to include Florida and Michigan in the mix. I haven't looked at that math, but it's doubtful that including FL and MI might not make push Clinton over the top.
I haven't seen anyone else do the math on this and put it out there like Kane at WAPO has done, which is surprising. But if others have done so, I'd like to see if there are different interpretations out there. Thoughts?
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